Malaysians are facing a new political landscape that can be viewed either positively or negatively depending on your political affiliation and biases.
First, let's summarise the facts of the election results:
1. Barisan Nasional was the worst loser with a record low of 30 parliamentary seats won (down from 79 seats in GE14). This is good news as it means that many Malay supporters have abandoned the traditional Malay UMNO party due to the corruption scandals plaguing its former Prime Minister and several other leaders.
2. The rise of PAS as a party to be recognised as a new force in Malaysia. PAS won a record 49 seats (vs 18 seats in GE14) for its Malay-dominated coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN), which had the second highest seats of 73. The extreme ideology of PAS led by Hadi Awang poses a great threat to the multi-racial and multi-faith structure of Malaysia of which 36.5% are non-Muslims.
3. The strongest winner in terms of parliamentary seats is the multi-ethnic coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) which won 82 seats (down from 113 seats in GE14) and the highest popular vote of 39.7%. While the Malay component party PKR led by a revitalised Anwar Ibrahim did win 31 seats, the overall performance was driven by its component party DAP with a contribution of 40 seats (close to half of the seats won by PH).
4. The Sarawak party coalition called Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) was apparently the king maker in any tight election outcome between PH and PN. GPS was formed from four former Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties after BN's defeat in GE14.
5. The polarisation of the country in terms of ethnic and religious affiliation with non-Malays and non-Muslims on one side and Malays and Muslims on the other side. Granted there is some overlap as PH has support from Muslims and non-Muslims.
Though I am not a political expert on Malaysian politics, I can identify two important trends arising from the voters choices.
First, as noted earlier, there is a major rejection of corruption-tainted parties, namely UMNO which could not reform itself despite having two sub-groups known as the court-case Kleptocrats (facing court trials) and the clean image UMNO leaders (e.g. Mat Hassan).
This is, by and large, a very positive development for a country like Malaysia because corruptible leaders not only leak out resources from the country, they tarnish the country's image in the eyes of foreign investors and Multinational companies. Worse still, these leaders may be influenced by the monetary power of the two geopolitical giants China and the U.S..
The second trend is the shift of the Malay voters towards Islamic conservatism and radicalism, which is represented by the huge rise in the votes for PAS.
While at this time (7pm 22nd November) the King has yet to decide who will be the Prime Minister and who receives the highest confidence among the Members of Parliament, the dilemma for the country is that a Malay-centric government with powerful Islamic lobbyists (67% or 49 out of 73 seats won by PN) will cause huge civil unhappiness and strife in our multi-ethnic country.
Despite any guarantees and assurances from the moderate wing of PN, the prospect of Shariah laws which are already enforced in the PAS-controlled states (Kelantan, Trengganu) and likely in PN's newly won Kedah state will cast a long shadow over the future expectations of non-Muslims' life in Malaysia.
And many Malaysians (including the moderate Muslims), who have already migrated out to greener pastures, are likely to increase the brain drain if the polarisation of Malaysia worsens.
The Inevitable Logic of The Political Pendulum
In my personal view, Malaysia has huge economic and geopolitical potential given its resources and its demographic profile in ASEAN.
I am optimistic that, despite the current trends and dangers of ideological divisions, Malaysia will turn out well.
Already, the widespread rejection of corrupt leaders has been confirmed by the GE15 results. The rejection of corruption is consistent with the value systems of all religious faiths.
My optimism is based on the foolishness of the Islamic leadership of the outspoken PAS leader Hadi Awang, who once falsely claimed that non-Muslims were the root cause of corruption.
Just as a pendulum that has swung to its extreme end, it will invariably swing back in the opposite direction. So the harder the swing force, the more likely will the pendulum swing back with equal force.
With the Internet and a fairly healthy free press, Malaysians are getting more intellectually and spiritually mature. They will learn from past and current mistakes. Likewise, they will reject leaders who promise a castle of gold in their ideological visions for the country but, instead deliver a barrel of sand.
So whatever the outcomes of the King's decision on the Prime Minister and the permutation of political coalitions (be it unity or minority government), the final destiny of this beautiful country filled with good-hearted, peaceful citizens will be much greater and nobler than it ever was in the past.
Postscript: As at 24th November, there is a highly likely outcome of a unity government forged between PH and BN.
With Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister and a deputy PM from UMNO (a visibly clean candidate untainted by corruption charges), the unity government's key mission is to save and by, implication, heal the Malaysian economy amidts the global economic headwinds of rising inflation and stagnant growth.
In the next five years, this unity government can either evolve into two different outcomes: first, it can become a formidable inclusive coalition that recognises the rights of the minority races while accepting the privileges of the Bumiputeras.
(And by inclusive, the PH-BN government will need to cater to the expectations of Islamic conservatives in its policies in order to weaken the radical elements of PAS in the opposition camp.)
The second outcome is the unity government remains a temporary makeshift partnership between two coalitions that continue to cultivate the 6 decades-old conundrum of race-based politics.
Three Tigers
In conclusion, what is encouraging is that, this unity government, despite its internal flaws and political incompatibilities, will be able to defang the two giant tigers threatening Malaysia's future well-being: corruption and race-based partisan politics.
The third tiger, namely ideological and religious extremism, has yet to be defanged.
As I said, this third tiger looks like a powerful and dangerous tiger for the non-Muslims but it will eventually be exposed as a destructive menace to all Malaysians.
The timing of the rise and fall of this new tiger is in God's hands. May God bless all Malaysians and the King in his wisdom in this hour of change.
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